Lets take a look at the market for Varitek. Turning down arbitration was a bold move, and possibly a costly one for Varitek/Boras. But, we wont know what the outcome will be until Varitek signs on somewhere for 2009. Can Boras succeed in creating a competitive market for Varitek's services? Lets take a look at his chances.
The free agent market for catchers, outside of Varitek, is Zaun, Javier Valentin, Hammock and Bennett. Reports are that Zaun is on the verge of signing with the Orioles, so for this article lets assume that happens. I think it is safe to say that Valentin, Hammock and Bennett, if they catch on for 09, are not threats to Varitek and will command far less money.
So, who are the teams that might be looking to upgrade at catcher? Lets start by ruling out some teams:
ARI - Snyder,C / Montero,M
ATL - McCann,B / Ross,D
CHC - Soto,G / Hill,K / Johnson,M
COL - Iannetta,C / Torrealba,Y / Bellorin,E / Phillips,P
LA - Martin,R / Ardoin,D / Ellis,A
LAA - Napoli,M / Mathis,J / Wilson,R / Budde,R
MIN - Mauer,J / Redmond,M
TEX - Saltalamacchia,J / Teagarden,T / Ramirez,M
CLE - Martinez,V / Shoppach,K / Haad,Y
Ok, that was easy - nine teams with solid catchers or catching depth that are safe to rule out. Lets dig a little deeper and take out some teams with either pretty good catchers, or unlikely to spend the money that Varitek will likely end up with:
BAL - Wieters,M / Zaun,G (?) / Moeller,C / Quiroz,G (Obviously going to transition to Wieters, a pickup of Zaun would allow them to do so at a comfortable pace. Potentially posturing with Zaun against a bid for Varitek, but lets take them at face value for now).
CHW - Pierzynski,A / Lucy,D
DET - Laird,G / Treanor,M / Ryan,D (Wouldnt be a shock if they showed interest, but until they can rely on higher attendances, I think they are done spending.)
KC - Olivo,M / Buck,J / Wilson,V / Pena,B
FLA - Baker,J / Rabelo,M
MIL - Kendall,J / Rivera,M / Rottino,V (Lets assume they save the money to go towards locking up some of their young talent, though assuming such a logical plan with Milwaukee may be a stretch.)
PIT - Doumit,R / Jaramillo,J / Diaz,R
SF - Molina,B / Holm,S
STL - Molina,Y / LaRue,J (Another team that could potentially get involved, but they seem to be commited to Yadier.)
SEA - Johjima,K / Burke,J / Johnson,R / Moore,A
TAM - Navarro,D / Riggans,S / Jaso,J / Hernandez,M
CIN - Hernandez,R / Hanigan,R (Would be a great destination, but lets assume the recent acquisition of Hernandez rules Varitek out).
NYY - Posada,J / Molina,J / Cash,K / Cervelli,F
TOR - Barajas,R / Barrett,M / Chavez,R
OAK - Suzuki,K / Bowen,R
That leaves us with seven teams to take a closer look at:
BOS - Bard,J / Kottaras,G
If they dont replace Varitek, they absolutely have to make a trade. There is just too much invested in this team to allow such a weak position to threaten their season. Luckily for Boston, there are some viable trade candidates available, including Montero in Arizona, Salty & Teagarden in Texas and possibly Mathis in Anaheim. After adding Penny and Smoltz, they do have the depth to trade one of their pitching prospects for a catcher. A Masterson/Montero or Masterson/Salty trade would make a lot of sense for all teams involved, and the possibility of such a deal should help them get back some bargaining leverage against Varitek/Boras.
HOU - Towles,J / Quintero,H / Castro,J
Well, if anyone needs Varitek, it the Astros, who, incidentally, have proven a willingness to overpay for veteran catching leadership. However, Houston has been public about their desire to cut back on payroll, and rumors have put Carlos Lee and Valverde on the trade market.
NYM - Schneider,B / Castro,R / Rivera,R / Cancel,R
Castro cant stay healthy and Schneider might be the worst game caller in the league. Unlike the Red Sox, the Mets do not have organizational depth with which to make a trade. Even though their catching situation is a bit less desperate, we can assume this is yet another conversation Omar Minaya and Scott Boras are having.
PHI - Ruiz,C / Paulino,R / Marson,L / Coste,C
You can do worse than Ruiz and Paulino, but Varitek would be a clear upgrade. The Phillies are playing with the big boys now, though it remains to be seen how big of a budget they are working with.
SD - Hundley,N / Carlin,L / Morton,C
I have to think Towers would find a smarter way to spend his money, or save his money as seems to be happening, but I am very skepticle that Hundley is the long term answer in San Diego. Teams love character guys like Varitke to help mentor young, rebuilding teams, but would Varitek want to be a part of a rebuilding process?
WAS - Flores,J / Nieves,W / Molina,G
While Flores had a promising season, Washington has been trying to lock up a "name" player all off-season to help the appeal at the gate, and Varitek is a relatively small investment for a name player.
At the end of the day it seems that there are teams that should be interested enough to support a market, but I cant really see a bidding war from these teams. Turning down arbitration may end up costing a couple million, but it was not necessarily a bad gamble to go for the two years, even if it doesnt work out. My prediction is that the Sox try to villify Varitek to get fan approval for an eventual Masterson/Montero trade (or some variation) and Varitek goes to the Mets for 1/6 with a vesting option for a second year at a certain number of plate appearances.
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